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Royal Society Open Science

The Royal Society

Preprints posted in the last 30 days, ranked by how well they match Royal Society Open Science's content profile, based on 214 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.21% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

1
Early Ontogenetic Development of Tessellated Calcified Cartilage in Chondrichthyans

Byrne, H. M.; Breet, I.; van Heuven, B. J.; Dearden, R. P.; Sanchez, S.; Johanson, Z.; Dean, M.; Ruecklin, M.

2026-08-24 zoology 10.64898/2026.08.21.746214 medRxiv
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Tessellated calcified cartilage (TCC) is a hallmark of the chondrichthyan skeleton, yet its development early in ontogeny across the four major groups (batoids, galeomorphs, squalomorphs, and holocephalans) remains poorly understood. Specialised traits of TCC, such as multi-layered TCC and internal mineralised trabeculae, typically develop in response to feeding mechanics. In this study, we evaluated TCC morphology in the jaws of 12 representative taxa to observe its structure at an early ontogenetic stage to determine whether these specialised features had yet developed. Batoids consistently exhibited well-developed, homogeneous, polygonal tesserae early in ontogeny regardless of jaw morphology or feeding habit. In contrast, galeomorphs displayed high morphological heterogeneity. Notably, we document the first report of an extensive internal trabecular network in a non-batoid elasmobranch, observed in Ginglymostoma cirratum, which may serve to resist the mechanical pressures of specialised suction feeding. Furthermore, we identified voussoir tesserae in galeomorphs for the first time, extending their documented presence across all elasmobranch groups, where they display an inverted aspect ratio (wider than tall) compared to mature forms. The durophagous Mustelus mustelus exhibited surprisingly poor TCC development despite being a durophagous feeder, pointing to a pronounced ontogenetic lag. In Squatina oculata, TCC was characterised by large and thick tesserae and extensive fused tesseral regions which may relate to its explosive ambush predation mode, whereas the holocephalan Chimaera exhibited a poorly mineralized, mesh-like structure without resolvable discrete tesserae or trabeculae-matching findings from previous studies. Across all specimens, multi-layered TCC was absent, confirming that multi-layering develops later in ontogeny. These results demonstrate that generalised models of TCC development based on one group or a few taxa fail to capture the broader diversity of TCC morphology. It also opens up many exciting avenues for further study, and forms the basis for comparisons with fossil chondrichthyans, to investigate the evolution of TCC.

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The Energetic Cost of Building Human Skeletal Muscle

Nikolaidis, M. G.; Paschalis, V.; Margaritelis, N. V.

2026-08-20 physiology 10.64898/2026.08.17.745156 medRxiv
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The energetic cost of building human skeletal muscle has never been explicitly calculated or measured. We developed a quantitative bottom-up accounting model that integrates human skeletal-muscle composition with empirically informed estimates of tissue synthesis, physiological deposition, maintenance during accretion, and diet-induced thermogenesis. The calculation was expressed per kg of wet skeletal muscle and organized into five additive components: stored tissue energy, biochemical synthesis cost, physiological deposition cost, resting maintenance during accretion, and diet-induced thermogenesis. Stored tissue energy was approximately 5670 kJ/kg (1355 kcal/kg). Adding biochemical synthesis cost gave 6340 kJ/kg (1515 kcal/kg). Applying empirically derived deposition-efficiency parameters yielded a physiological deposition requirement of 9780 to 11690 kJ/kg (2338 to 2793 kcal/kg), centrally 10830 kJ/kg (2587 kcal/kg). Adding resting maintenance during accretion and diet-induced thermogenesis produced a final additional metabolizable energy intake of 13410 to 15520 kJ/kg (3204 to 3710 kcal/kg), centrally 14570 kJ/kg (3481 kcal/kg). This value provides a first quantitative reference estimate for the energetic cost of human skeletal-muscle accretion.

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Sulfur isotopes in hunted ungulates reveal Palaeolithic human mobility patterns in Northern Iberia

Gonzalez-Rabanal, B.; Jones, J. R.; Vidal-Cordasco, M.; Agudo Perez, L.; Alvarez-Vena, A.; Torres-Iglesias, L.; Garcia-Sanchez, J.; Fernandez-Garcia, M.; Reade, H.; Sanz-Royo, A.; Geiling, J. M.; Altuna, J.; Mariezkurrena, K.; Corchon-Rodriguez, M. S.; Cuenca-Solana, D.; Morales, M. R. G.; Gutierrez-Zugasti, I.; Stevens, R. E.; Fatas, P.; de la Rasilla, M.; OConnell, T.; Richards, M. P.; Straus, L. G.; Marin-Arroyo, A. B.

2026-08-18 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.14.744276 medRxiv
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This research addresses a central question in Palaeolithic research: how hunter-gatherer mobility was structured across space and time in the Cantabrian Region (northern Iberia), which has human occupation evidence spanning from the Middle Pleistocene through the Holocene. A multidisciplinary framework integrating primarily {delta}3S isotope values, combined with {delta}{superscript 1}3C and {delta}{superscript 1}N, palaeoproteomics, Bayesian age modelling, palaeoclimatic reconstruction, isoscape mapping, and ecological diversity was developed. A total of 905 animal bone collagen samples, with evidence of anthropogenic modifications, from 16 key archaeological sites from the Mousterian to Mesolithic (Marine Isotopic Stage 5 to 1, between 100-7 ka BP) were analysed, permitting the reconstruction of spatial patterns of resource exploitation and human mobility. The {delta}3S isotope values show weak, inconsistent relationships with climatic proxies, suggesting that sulfur signatures are primarily driven by geographic and ecological factors rather than climate. Strong spatial trends are observed, with higher {delta}3S values in coastal zones and lower values inland. Diachronic trends reveal marked shifts in human mobility: smaller ranges during the Mousterian, increasing mobility through the Chatelperronian and especially the Aurignacian, followed by reduced mobility in the Gravettian and Solutrean, and renewed territorial expansion during the Magdalenian and, likely, the Azilian. In contrast, the Mesolithic is characterised by decreased mobility and thus increased territoriality in both coastal and inland contexts. Faunal isotope values and isoscape predictions reveal that some animals were acquired beyond local foraging ranges during the Palaeolithic, particularly in inland regions with lower {delta}3S values. Isotopic niche analyses indicate partial interspecific overlap consistent with ecological flexibility. Macromammal and micromammal diversity exhibit contrasting patterns, with a significant negative correlation in Simpson and Shannon indices. Macromammal diversity correlates negatively with {delta}3S values, linking increased hunting diversity to expanded catchment areas and longer-distance foraging, whereas micromammal diversity shows positive correlations with {delta}3S, {delta}{superscript 1}3C and {delta}{superscript 1}N reflecting stronger climatic influence. Overall, these results demonstrate that hunter-gatherer behaviour in northern Iberia during the Middle and Late Palaeolithic was highly dynamic, combining logistical and residential strategies that shifted in response to changing environmental conditions, resource distributions and cultural adaptations.

4
Epidemiological methods provide target metrics and control parameters for multi-actor violent conflicts

Smah, M. L.; MacKay, N.

2026-08-10 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.05.26359787 medRxiv
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Violent conflicts increasingly involve multiple armed actors competing for influence over shared civilian populations, creating complex dynamics that challenge conventional security analysis and policy design. We present a framework that adapts epidemiological methods informed by the conflict landscape in Nigeria to model multi-actor violent conflict as an epidemic process. We derive a basic insecurity reproduction number ($R_0$), identify violence-free and persistent-violence equilibria, and introduce a novel Civilian Harm Index (CHI) to quantify humanitarian impact. Sensitivity analyses identify recruitment, ideological support from civilian populations, and abduction as the key drivers of conflict persistence and civilian harm. The framework reveals several counterintuitive findings. Interventions that most effectively suppress violence transmission are not necessarily those that minimise civilian harm, demonstrating that epidemic control and humanitarian protection may require distinct optimisation criteria. Likewise, interventions effective against one armed actor may be ineffective, or even counterproductive, when applied uniformly across groups. In addition, prisoner exchange and ransom payments increase violence persistence and civilian harm. Although developed as an illustrative rather than predictive framework, our results show that epidemiological methods provide quantitative metrics for evaluating intervention priorities and trade-offs in complex multi-actor conflicts.

5
Resolving platypus behaviour from accelerometry: frequency-domain features improve detection of rhythmic behaviours in hydrodynamically challenging aquatic environments

Webb, B.; Ryan, M.; Thomas, J. L.

2026-08-11 animal behavior and cognition 10.64898/2026.08.05.743151 medRxiv
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Developing robust methods to quantify how animals allocate time across behaviours is essential for understanding energy use, habitat requirements, and responses to environmental change. For cryptic, semi-aquatic mammals such as the platypus, direct observation is difficult, creating a reliance on remote biologging approaches that can reliably infer behaviour in the wild. However, aquatic environments can both smooth acceleration signals through hydrodynamic damping and introduce noise from water movement, turbulence, and drag, potentially obscuring behavioural differences of similar magnitudes. We tested whether progressively incorporating biomechanical and frequency-domain (FFT-derived) predictors improved behavioural classification in hydrodynamically challenging aquatic environments. Tri-axial accelerometers were deployed on four ex situ platypuses, with synchronised video observations used to validate behaviour. From the acceleration data, we derived three predictor classes of increasing complexity: summary statistics describing activity level, engineered biomechanical variables capturing posture and body orientation, and FFT-derived features describing movement rhythm. These predictors were progressively incorporated into Random Forest models to classify five behaviours: burrow resting, surface resting, grooming, travelling/foraging, and diving. Model performance improved with increasing predictor complexity, although gains were behaviour specific. FFT-derived features substantially improved classification of rhythmic behaviours such as diving and foraging, while engineered biomechanical predictors improved grooming detection. In contrast, resting behaviours, particularly surface resting, showed little improvement. Overall accuracy increased from [~]75% to [~]88% when frequency-domain features were included. Misclassification was greatest among behaviours with overlapping or low-amplitude signals, and cross-individual validation revealed reduced model generalisability, indicating that individual variation in movement patterns constrained transferability. Incorporating frequency-domain features substantially improved behavioural classification in platypuses, particularly for rhythmic behaviours such as diving and foraging. This study provides the first validated accelerometry-based behavioural classification framework for the species and highlights the importance of matching predictor selection to behavioural mechanics. More broadly, the approach offers a transferable framework for aquatic and semi-aquatic taxa.

6
The role of animal personality in behavioural welfare diagnostics: a case study in Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus)

Philip, J.; Laduree, G.; Prat, A.; Dellinger, M.; Lobligeois, S.; Benhaim, D.

2026-08-28 animal behavior and cognition 10.64898/2026.08.25.747029 medRxiv
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Animal personality is the expression of consistent among-individual variation in a behavioural trait across time and context. The application of this theory to behavioural research provides a valuable framework to investigate the among- and within-individual variation in behaviour. The animal personality theory is particularly relevant to understand and diagnostic fish welfare. It can be integrated within the nature-based welfare framework, which emphasizes the expression of species-specific behaviours and the maintenance of consistent behavioural patterns over time. Because behavioural trait such as boldness may be closely linked to other functional phenotypes, such associations reflect the broader concept of animal personality, whereby a behavioural trait can covary with another phenotypic trait to support an adaptive responses to environmental conditions. Although these relationships are both species and context dependent, they are consistently shaped by environmental conditions and environmental complexity tend to promote species specific behaviours and reduce maladaptive traits. Here we examined how structural environmental complexity shapes personality in Arctic charr and their covarying functional phenotypes, specifically growth rate and brain size. We propose that environmental complexity promotes alternative behavioural and functional phenotypes through multivariate phenotypic plasticity. We found that environmental complexity did not influence mean boldness between both treatments, but repeatability of boldness in the complex environment was remarkably consistent over a longer-term period, while estimates collapse after seven days in the plain treatment. Our findings are a clear evidence that environmental complexity foster stable behavioural trait expression and that a plain environment may suppress personality. Our results provide compelling evidence that behavioural structure and dynamics are embedded within patterns of behavioural variance. Although we found no support for behavioural covariation or associations with growth rate and brain size, we suggest that the animal personality framework may offer a valuable approach for diagnosing fish welfare issues through the partitioning of behavioural variance.

7
Triceps surae and Achilles tendon contributions to ankle stiffness depend on movement state

Jakubowski, K. L.; Ludvig, D.; Perreault, E. J.; Lee, S. S.

2026-08-20 bioengineering 10.64898/2026.08.19.745788 medRxiv
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Ankle stiffness is decreased during movement compared to posture; however, the etiology of this decrease remains unknown. Determining what gives rise to this decrease is critical for understanding how humans successfully interact with their physical world and how that ability is compromised by functional impairments. While the triceps surae and Achilles tendon primarily dictate ankle stiffness, the relative contributions across posture and movement remain unknown. Therefore, our study sought to quantify the relative contributions of the muscle and tendon to ankle stiffness and how those contributions differ between posture and movement. We used our technique, which combines B-mode ultrasound imaging with joint-level perturbations, to quantify ankle, muscle, and tendon stiffness simultaneously. Since ankle, muscle, and tendon stiffness all scale with torque, participants matched torque between posture and movement tasks. During posture, the Achilles tendon is the dominant contributor to ankle stiffness. However, during movement, the triceps surae and Achilles tendon contribute more equally to ankle stiffness, which can be attributed to a significant decrease in muscle stiffness during movement. Here, we provide the first empirical data on how state-dependent properties of the triceps surae and Achilles tendon contribute to ankle stiffness in conditions relevant to locomotion.

8
The impact of temperature-induced vertebral anomalies on C-start swimming performance in Astyanax mexicanus (Teleostei: Characidae)

Arnold, K. M.; Reyes-Corral, W. D.; Howard, O.; Graca, C.; Aguirre, W. E.

2026-08-11 zoology 10.64898/2026.08.06.743195 medRxiv
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This study investigates the impact temperature-induced vertebral anomalies have on the C-start escape response of Astyanax mexicanus, a model species in evolutionary developmental biology. Employing three temperature treatments to induce varying degrees of skeletal anomalies, we assessed their effects on key swimming performance metrics including, C-start time, curvature coefficient, head displacement distance, and displacement velocity. Through the use of linear mixed models and generalized linear mixed models, our results reveal that specific anomalies such as vertebral fusions and anomalous haemal and neural spines affected the curving ability of C-start escape responses. However, these did not negatively impact other performance parameters, with velocity, distance, and response time showing no significant impacts from any anomaly types, when assessed individually. This suggests a complex interplay between structural deformities and compensatory physiological mechanisms that maintain functional performance. Other variables measured had a stronger and significant impact on swimming performance, including standard length, vertebral number, and temperature treatment, which influenced escape speed, curving ability, and overall locomotor performance. Our findings challenge conventional perceptions about the debilitating impact of vertebral anomalies, indicating that many affected fish can still effectively perform escape maneuvers critical for survival.

9
Scheduling problems and the energetics of biparental care in a model of imperiled seabirds

Taylor, L. U.; Jones, P. L.; Haussmann, M. F.; Mauck, R. A.

2026-08-10 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.08.743669 medRxiv
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For organisms with biparental care, successful reproduction hinges on coordination between partners. Seabirds face an extreme coordination challenge because parents must schedule nest attendance on land with long-distance foraging trips at sea. We present a computational model of incubation schedules for a vulnerable seabird, the Leachs Storm-Petrel (Hydrobates leucorhous). Using only simple energetic rules and parameters, the model recapitulates natural incubation rhythms, exposes a tradeoff between parent energy and egg attendance, and predicts severe reproductive failure in harsh environments. Incubation primarily fails through "schedule breakdown" -- a single point in the season when both parents spend too long foraging and the egg dies from cold. The resilience of the developing offspring to neglect is thus a fundamental adaptation to the uncertainties of biparental care. These results raise new alarms about the indirect causes of reproductive failure in sensitive marine species and provide theoretical foundations for the evolutionary ecology of scheduling behaviors.

10
A two-signal, two-receiver signalling system: Snake mobbing in the Arabian babbler

Guggenberger, M.; Keynan, O.; Yovel, Y.

2026-08-28 animal behavior and cognition 10.64898/2026.08.25.747098 medRxiv
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Mobbing is a collective antipredator behaviour in which animals approach and harass a threat while coordinating signals to alert conspecifics, recruit allies, or deter predators. In group-living Arabian babblers (Argya squamiceps), snake mobbing involves two distinct signals: acoustic "zwick" calls inaudible to the snake and visual wing-lifting displays. We elicited snake-mobbing events with dummy vipers and recorded babbler groups using a synchronized acoustic camera enabling individual caller identification and postural analysis. Our results reveal the different and similar roles of the two signals in babblers' multimodal mobbing behaviour. Recruitment order was independent of sex, age and rank. Individual investment in mobbing signaling decreased as group size increased, supporting the hypotheses of social buffering and predation risk dilution. Solitary individuals always called during wing-lifts, supporting the calls' recruitment function. Mobbing individuals responded faster (with signaling) to a joint visual-acoustic conspecific display than an only acoustic signal. When coupled, wing-lifts significantly altered vocal characteristics, decreasing call frequency and increasing call rate, thus strengthening the acoustic signal. Moreover, calls emitted toward the end of the wing-lift display exhibit stronger vocal modulation. Together, these findings demonstrate the multi-functional role of multi-modal mobbing signals during a risky cooperative task balancing social communication and predator deterrence.

11
Behavioural type drives discovery and exploitation of anthropogenic resources

Wild, S.; Uyehara, I. K.; Todd, L. M.; Ravara, T. A.; Sih, A.; Smith, J. E.

2026-08-06 animal behavior and cognition 10.64898/2026.07.31.742110 medRxiv
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Human-influenced environments pose challenges but also provide wildlife with anthropogenic resources. Individuals vary widely in their ability to exploit such resources, often as a function of behavioural type. However, we lack a clear understanding of how variation in behavioural traits influences stages of resource exploitation required to use anthropogenic resources. Using fully automated foraging puzzles, we examined how boldness and sociability influenced three aspects of resource exploitation - discovery, problem-solving, and overall performance - in two wild populations of California ground squirrels (Otospermophilus beecheyi). Bolder individuals discovered the resource earlier, solved the task faster and achieved higher performance, indicating that boldness promotes efficient exploitation of anthropogenic resources across multiple stages in the process. Greater sociability and more opportunities to observe conspecifics solving the task led to faster problem-solving, consistent with evidence for observational learning. Squirrels in the recreational-use population - with regular exposure to humans and anthropogenic food - were faster to discover the resource than those in a trail-use population - where human exposure was transient and no anthropogenic food available. Problem-solving latency and performance were consistent between populations. Our findings highlight how individual variation in behavioural traits drives performance in novel ecological contexts, providing a mechanistic understanding of behavioural plasticity in human-influenced environments.

12
Forecasting high pathogenicity avian influenza with a stochastic mechanistic model: performance and lessons for Australia

Theng, M.; Lee, S.; Wille, M.; Le, T. P.; Breed, A. C.; Donoghue, C.; Baker, C.; Firestone, S. P.

2026-08-25 bioinformatics 10.64898/2026.08.24.746897 medRxiv
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High pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b has caused a global panzootic with unprecedented impacts on wildlife and livestock, making evidence-based disease mitigation and outbreak response critical. In this paper, we describe a spatiotemporal mechanistic model of infectious disease dynamics developed for the HPAI Modelling Challenge and its implications for forecasting and policy in Australia. To emulate emergency response conditions, we adapted an existing model for rapid deployment rather than developing a bespoke model. We refined the model iteratively across the challenge to better analyse the provided outbreak data. Throughout the challenge, we accurately forecast temporal trends and local outbreak spread, but could not predict rarer, long-distance dispersal events. The challenge ended before HPAI H5N1 was first detected in Australia (June 2026), providing a critical opportunity to test our response modelling readiness for an incursion in wildlife and potential spillover into commercial poultry. Our experience identifies three key considerations for Australia's HPAI H5N1 preparedness: targeted enhancements to our model to improve forecast precision and enable scenario-based policy evaluation; the critical value of pre-existing modelling infrastructure for rapid emergency response; and sustained collaboration between research and policy institutions to align modelling capabilities with outbreak response requirements.

13
Modelling the Effects of Smoking Behavior on Male-to-Male HPV Transmission and Anal Cancer Progression

Owolabi, R. O.; Martcheva, M.; Ghosh, I.

2026-08-12 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.11.26360159 medRxiv
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Human Papillomavirus (HPV) infection among men who have sex with men (MSM) has become a significant public health concern, particularly in countries where male vaccination is unavailable. Given the high susceptibility of MSM to HPV and anal cancer, and the unavailability of HPV vaccination for males in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), there is a need to identify alternative interventions for reducing disease transmission and burden in this population. The novel mathematical model presented in this article couples smoking behavior dynamics with HPV transmission and anal cancer progression among MSM. Smoking reduction is introduced as an intervention to assess its effects on disease transmission and burden. The basic reproduction number (R0) is derived using the next-generation matrix method, and a global sensitivity analysis is performed using partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCC) to identify the influence of model parameters on RR0. Further, the theoretical analysis of the model reveals a backward bifurcation, implying that RR0 < 1 is necessary but not sufficient to eradicate the disease. The study finds that smoking reduction among MSM reduces HPV infection and anal cancer burden relative to baseline projections without intervention. The joint effect of smoking reduction and vaccination shows that the critical vaccination coverage needed to achieve RR0 <1 decreases as the level of smoking reduction increases. A similar outcome is observed for contact reduction. These findings highlight the importance of concurrent interventions, which can significantly curtail the spread of HPV and reduce disease burden in both the high-risk group and the general population.

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Animal-robot interaction in the field: stronger responses and slower habituation of grazing cattle to a quadruped robot than to a drone

Anzai, H.; Iwatani, K.; Miyamoto, S.; Tamura, K.; Miyagi, H.; Anzai, H.

2026-08-20 animal behavior and cognition 10.64898/2026.08.12.744347 medRxiv
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Robotic herding offers a promising off-animal approach to controlling the spatial distribution of grazing livestock. Nevertheless, the habituation of cattle to herding stimuli remains a critical obstacle to its practical use. This study presents the first field investigation of behavioral responses of grazing cattle to herding by a quadruped robot. We compared the herding efficacy of a drone and a quadruped robot, and tracked daily changes in responsiveness during continuous herding. Trials were conducted in a 1.1-ha pasture with Japanese Black breeding cows from June to October 2023. The quadruped robot elicited stronger avoidance responses with shorter latencies than the drone, and herding was more successful with the robot. During consecutive daily herding with the robot, behavioral responsiveness declined progressively over the initial 5 days, at a markedly slower rate than previously reported for drone herding. Following a 24-day interruption, responsiveness partially increased, but declined rapidly again over the subsequent two days. These results indicate that the quadruped robot constitutes a more persistent aversive stimulus than a drone for grazing cattle, although habituation management strategies (such as diversifying stimuli or combining sensory modalities) will be necessary for sustained control of grazing distribution.

15
Female song and breeding phenology of the Nilgiri Flycatcher (Eumyias albicaudatus) in the Shola Sky Islands

Vyas, H.; Arvind, C.; Mangalasami, S.; Vijayan, R.

2026-08-28 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.27.747512 medRxiv
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Assessing breeding phenology using singing intensity can potentially provide insights into a species' responses to climate or habitat change. Although male passerines are known to sing elaborate songs during the breeding season, females of several tropical passerines also sing. The Nilgiri Flycatcher (Eumyias albicaudatus) is an endemic dimorphic songbird found in the southern Western Ghats of India. Despite its limited distribution and its ecological significance as an indicator species of cloud forests, very little is known about its vocal behaviour and breeding ecology. To examine sex-specific differences in vocalisation patterns, we analysed 294 male and 102 female focal songs from two pairs of birds. We then used data from a year-long automated recorder placed near a breeding pair to study the species' singing phenology using the BirdNET Analyser. The two sexes broadly produced similar songs, although males' songs included more notes at a faster pace. The sex-specific detectors failed due to this high similarity among songs of the two sexes, but we were able to automate species-level detection (F1-score = 0.795 at a confidence threshold of 0.1). We found strong seasonality in vocal activity, with peaks in singing during the breeding season, and identified a diurnal peak at dawn. More data are required to parameterise differences in annual vocal activity between the sexes. These detection patterns provide a framework for a landscape-wide examination of Nilgiri Flycatcher phenology and occurrence. This study suggests that automatic detectors can be a reliable tool for assessing singing phenology in birds and provide insights into breeding periods.

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Non-destructive tree volume estimation using mobile laser scanning: Impact of the tree shape on measurement error.

Holvoet, J.; Lejeune, P.; Perin, J.; Vandendaele, B.; Ligot, G.

2026-08-12 bioengineering 10.64898/2026.08.11.744158 medRxiv
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Accurate tree volume estimation is central to forest management and carbon accounting. Allometric equations are widely used but limited in transferability across species, regions, and environmental conditions. Mobile Laser Scanning (MLS) offers a promising alternative through direct measurement of tree geometry; however, the influence of tree shape on MLS accuracy remains poorly understood. This study evaluated MLS-derived estimates of stem diameters, total tree height, and merchantable stem volume against destructive reference measurements from 176 trees spanning eight species (four hardwood, four softwood) in Wallonia, Belgium. A Zeb Horizon RT scanner was used; tree architectural descriptors extracted from the point cloud were tested for associations with measurement error. Across 7,824 stem diameter measurements, MLS achieved a mean error of 0.46 cm, with precision declining above 15 m. MLS-derived height outperformed Vertex IV clinometer measurements for hardwood species (RMSE% = 6.88 vs. 8.78) but performed slightly less well for softwoods (RMSE% = 7.36 vs. 6.14). QSM-based volume estimates systematically underestimated reference values, while taper-based reconstruction produced nearly unbiased estimates with an RMSE of 15.72%. Correlation analyses and PCA showed that tree architectural variables explained only a small fraction of MLS error variability. Diameter and height errors were largely independent of structural attributes, while volume errors showed moderate associations with tree size and crown density. These findings indicate that tree architecture is not a primary source of MLS measurement uncertainty. Future MLS-based forest inventory efforts should prioritize acquisition and processing optimization, as scanning conditions and forest structure appear more influential than tree shape.

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Automating the triage of rheumatology outpatient referrals: a comparative evaluation of 23 large language models under simple and advanced prompting

Roberts, L.

2026-08-10 health systems and quality improvement 10.64898/2026.08.05.26359488 medRxiv
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Objective. Triage of rheumatology outpatient referrals is a high-volume administrative task that consumes senior specialist time without advancing patient care. The human triage system is only moderately accurate and reproducible. We assessed whether contemporary large language models (LLMs) are able to perform well enough to support automating this task in practice. In addition, the effects of different prompting techniques on triage accuracy and cost was assessed to help identify to optimal approach. Methods. Twenty referral scenarios spanning the urgency spectrum, based on real referrals were created by a certified Australian rheumatologist. Four rheumatologists triaged all cases independently and blinded, to produce a consensus reference standard. Twenty-three LLMs each triaged every referral into one of five urgency categories, three times (1380 outputs per condition). The experiment was run with a simple prompt and repeated with a advanced prompt supplying explicit triage expectations and worked examples. Results. All 2760 attempts returned valid categories. Under the simple prompt, performance separated into distinct tiers, larger models were more accurate (Spearman rho=0.42; P=.047) and accuracy tracked cost. Advanced prompting minimised between-model variance in accuracy 5.3-fold (0.014 to 0.003; Levene P=.01), abolished the size-accuracy association (rho=-0.05; P=.83) and removed the accuracy-cost relationship. Leading models matched expert consensus on most cases, within or above the range reported for human triage. Under-triage errors persisted with some LLMs. Conclusion. Contemporary LLMs categorise rheumatology referral urgency as well or better than published human triage systems. Advanced LLM prompting methods substitute for the reasoning capability of larger models, suggesting that LLM performance on this task may not require the most expensive models. The tools to automate this administrative task appear to already exist. Strong candidate LLMs that might serve a production ready solution have been identified.

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Effects of gamebird release on the non-gamebird dietary diversity and composition of red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) in Southern England

Pedersen, S.; Sage, R. B.; Woodburn, M. I. A.; Coomes, J. R.; Werling, J.; Tyler, C. R.

2026-08-21 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.20.745779 medRxiv
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The red fox, Vulpes vulpes, is abundant in England and can exert limiting effects on their avian and mammalian prey. Large-scale gamebird releases in the UK may be sustaining high predator numbers, leading to greater predation on other prey species, especially once gamebird stocks are depleted. However, little is known how gamebird release affects the broader diet of the red fox. Here we used DNA metabarcoding to assess the diet of foxes from 18 agricultural estates in Southern England, 10 of which released large numbers of gamebirds (red-legged partridges - Alectoris rufus, and common pheasants - Phasianus colchicus) and 8 which did not. Scats were collected over one year, allowing for seasonal investigation of the foxes' diet. We investigated the vertebrate species consumed and compared the non-gamebird dietary diversity and composition between release and non-release estates and across seasons. The field vole (Microtus agrestis) was found to be the most frequently predated species overall. Brown hares and field voles were detected more on release sites, while bank voles and dog faeces were detected more on non-release sites. We found little evidence that foxes predate ground nesting birds or other species of concern. The dietary diversity was significantly lower on estates that released gamebirds, and this difference was most notable during the post-shoot, spring months (February to April). On both estate types, diversity was highest in the summer months. The altered predatory behaviour due to gamebird release is likely to affect the populations of the non-game prey of the red fox and this should be considered when designing policies regarding gamebird management and biodiversity conservation. Alternative predation combined with predator control may be reducing predation pressure on non-game prey where gamebirds are released, but high fox density elsewhere likely results in higher predation pressure on a wide range of species.

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Symmetry breaking and social coordination in children: Using group theory to understand emergent patterns of multi-agent coordination

Kijima, A.; Okumura, M.; Shima, H.; Kallen, R. W.; Richardson, M. J.; Yamamoto, Y.

2026-08-20 animal behavior and cognition 10.64898/2026.08.11.743695 medRxiv
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Predicting patterns of behavioural coordination that emerge in small interacting groups is challenging because goal-directed social action is shaped by complex reciprocal and compensatory dynamics. In this study, we examined whether formal symmetry principles derived from group theory could explain coordination patterns among children performing a triadic jumping task. We investigated how geometric symmetries of the task environment and dispositional (a)symmetries associated with leader-follower tendencies jointly constrain collective behaviour. Forty-seven children were classified into symmetric or asymmetric triads based on teacher evaluations of leadership dispositions. Each triad completed multiple trials of a synchronized jumping game requiring movement between adjacent hoops arranged in triangular or square configurations. Results showed that temporal asymmetries in inter-child movement (first, second, or last to jump) were consistent with group-theoretic predictions. In triangular configurations, observed asymmetries corresponded to the highest-order subgroup defined by task and dispositional symmetries. These findings demonstrate that environmental symmetry exerts a hierarchically dominant constraint on collective coordination, within which actor dispositional (a)symmetries further modulate emerging patterns.

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Chorus Synchrony as a Cue: Influence of Chorus Howl Synchrony from Unfamiliar Packs on Wolves' Behaviour

Kern, V.; Capitain, S.; Wirobski, G.; Arias-Sarah, P.; Newson, M.; Van de Waal, E.; Range, F.

2026-08-24 animal behavior and cognition 10.64898/2026.08.20.745898 medRxiv
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Chorus howls play a central role in wolves' (Canis lupus) social communication, shaping both intra- and inter-pack interactions. While synchrony has been shown to influence perceived threat from outgroups in birds and humans, whether the synchrony of an outside pack's chorus howl plays a role in wolf pack behaviour remains unclear. This study investigated behavioural responses of 19 zoo-housed wolf packs to playbacks of synchronous and asynchronous chorus howls from unfamiliar packs, in comparison to a dove control call. We hypothesized that packs would show stronger intra-pack cohesion and greater spatial withdrawal in response to more synchronous, and thus cohesive - and potentially more formidable - sounding vocalisations. Alternatively, asynchronous howls might elicit stronger responses due to their ambiguity and the "Beau Geste" effect (where asynchronous signals make it harder to infer the number of callers). Synchronous howls resulted in more distance from the sound source and less activity compared with asynchronous howls. This could be interpreted as a more cautious response towards a perceived threat. However, since there was no effect on pack-directed behaviour and no difference between the synchronous and control sound, lower interest or motivation to engage with the stimulus cannot be excluded. In contrast, wolves spent more time near the sound-source after hearing asynchronous howls, approached it more, and oriented towards it for longer compared to synchronous playbacks, a pattern consistent with threat-investigation. In how far these reactions result from a more difficult localisation of synchronous howls or more ambiguity in pack size in the asynchronous playbacks, as well as how this translates to wild wolf behaviour, remains to be investigated.